The reality is that we still don’t have complete, reliable breast cancer data in Canada. Critical information — such as metastatic recurrence, long-term outcomes, race, income and age-specific impacts — is often not consistently collected or publicly reported.
That’s why Rethink Breast Cancer continues to advocate more complete data through #MakeMeCount.
So, what do we know?
Each year, the Canadian Cancer Society releases predictive cancer statistics which provide the most up-to-date estimates of cancer incidence, mortality and survival in Canada. In 2025, they released their latest projections, offering important insight into the current state of breast cancer across the country.
Below is a summary of what the most recent data tells us about breast cancer in Canada — and where significant gaps remain.
Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in Canadian women
This fact remains true in 2025. According to the Canadian Cancer Society’s 2025 predictive statistics:
• Breast cancer is still the most commonly diagnosed cancer in women living in Canada (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers).
• The lifetime probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer is about 1 in 8 (13%).
Top cancers among Canadian women in 2025 (by % of new cases)
(Excluding non-melanoma skin cancers)
• Breast cancer ~25.7%
• Lung cancer ~14.2%
• Colorectal cancer ~9.5%
• Uterine cancer ~7.0%
• Non-Hodgkin lymphoma ~4.2%
Breast cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in Canada — period.
So, you probably already knew that breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in Canadian women. However, you probably didn’t know that breast cancer is currently the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in Canada — across all genders.
• Lung cancer (~32,900)
• Breast cancer (~31,900 cases)
• Prostate cancer (~30,400 cases)
• Colorectal cancer (~26,400 cases)
Collectively, these four cancers are expected to make up nearly half of all cancers diagnosed in 2025.
The age-standardized incidence rate has not really change in the past 5 years
Over the past decade, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (which considers population growth and aging) for breast cancer in Canadian women has remained largely stable, with only a slight increase of about 2–3 cases per 100,000 women, rising from approximately the mid-120s per 100,000 to around 129–130 per 100,000 in recent projections.
So, while it appears like we expect more people to be diagnosed with breast cancer in 2025 (approximately 31,900 cases) than in 2019 (approximately 26,900 cases), it’s important to remember that the individual risk of breast cancer has not increased substantially.
Breast cancer cases in younger women
Although most breast cancer cases occur in older women, younger women are still affected:
• Most cases occur in women aged 50 and over (roughly 80% or more), with <1% occurring in men.
• ~5% of breast cancer cases in Canada are diagnosed in women under 40.
Canada’s breast cancer mortality rate is still the lowest it has been since 1950
Breast cancer remains the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths in females in Canada.
In 2025, breast cancer is estimated to account for approximately 13% of all cancer deaths in women (a similar proportion to recent years) — second only to lung cancer (23%).
However, the overall age-standardized mortality rate for breast cancer in Canada is the lowest it has been since the mid-20th century. After its peak in 1986 (42.7 per 100,000), the mortality rate has continued to fall over time, dropping to an estimated 22.4 per 100,000 in 2019. This decline is likely due to improved overall cancer control, including earlier detection and the use of more effective therapies following breast cancer surgery.
Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths for those under 50
The burden of a breast cancer diagnosis remains heavy on women under the age of 50.
While these women make up a smaller portion of overall breast cancer diagnoses in Canada, their rates of death are disproportionately high.
According to the Canadian Cancer Society, breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths among women aged 30–49, highlighting the significant impact of the disease in this age group.
There are many possible reasons for this, like:
• Delayed diagnosis
• More likely to be aggressive subtypes of breast cancer in younger women
• Limited access to clinical trials and age-specific research
And…
Breast screening remains challenging
There has been an increased focus on screening for young women who are known to be high risk over the past several years. As of 2024, the breast screening age in some Canadian provinces has been lowered to 40, meaning there’s an increase in younger women who are being included in population-based screening.
Breast cancer screening remains especially challenging for younger women, largely because dense breast tissue can make tumors harder to detect on standard mammograms. This reduces screening accuracy and increases the risk of delayed diagnosis. While younger women of average risk typically don’t need to worry about routine breast screening, this is why women of average risk under age 40 are not included in routine population screening programs. As a result, younger women face unique barriers to timely diagnosis, reinforcing the urgent need for better, more affect screening tools and age-appropriate, risk-based approaches to breast health. You can read more about our approach to breast screening here.
We haven’t seen much improvement for breast cancer survival in Canada
We’ve seen a modest change in breast cancer survival in Canada. The 5-year survival rate has remained high, at approximately 89% (around 88% since 2019).
However, survival varies significantly by stage at diagnosis. Early-stage breast cancer has very high survival rates (almost 100% for stage 1), while outcomes for advanced and metastatic breast cancer remain much poorer.
It is really important to note that 5-year survival measures the percentage of people alive five years after a cancer diagnosis within a general population. It reflects overall prognosis, accounting for varied treatments and demographics. Standard 5-year survival statistics do not capture metastatic recurrence. This means people within the 5-year survival statistics may have had a recurrence within that time span and be living with a terminal diagnosis and heavy burden of treatment and side-effects.
Moreover, there are patients who are initially diagnosed with early-stage disease and have a metastatic recurrence after 5 years of survival and later die from metastatic breast cancer that has spread to other organs. This is a major gap in how breast cancer outcomes are measured in Canada — and a key reason Rethink Breast Cancer continues to advocate for better data collection through #MakeMeCount.
What this means for the future of young women in Canada
It means we STILL need to address treatment and care issues for younger women in Canada. These challenges were also reflected in Rethink’s 2025 Needs Assessment for Young Women with Breast Cancer and include:
• Delays in diagnosis
• More advanced cancers at diagnosis
• Higher mortality rates compared with older women
• Low participation in clinical trials, limiting access to cutting-edge treatments
• Lack of age-appropriate care tailored to younger patients
• Concerns around social support during cancer treatment, including work, family and mental health
• Late effects of treatment, such as fertility, heart health and secondary cancers
• Recurrence, including metastatic disease that may appear years after initial treatment
• Longer-term psychosocial concerns, including anxiety, depression and challenges reintegrating into everyday life
Key Takeaways
1. Breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women in Canada.
2. It is the second most common cancer overall in Canada, second only to lung cancer, with approximately 31,900 new cases diagnosed each year.
3. About 1 in 8 women in Canada (13%) will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime.
4. Younger women under 40 can and do get breast cancer and are more likely to be diagnosed with more aggressive subtypes (like triple negative or HER2-positive).
5. Younger women with breast cancer have unique needs and challenges, many of which don’t stop when active treatment does. This reality is reinforced in Rethink’s National Needs Assessment Report.
6. Thankfully, having more innovative treatment options means that some living with metastatic breast cancer are living longer, which is amazing, but also increases the demand for tailored support.
Rethink Breast Cancer will continue to be at the forefront in addressing these concerns through helping younger people assess their risk, working on our advocacy and access to treatment, creating relevant resources, providing tailored support and fostering spaces for younger women to feel connected and empowered.